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Market Wrap - US Rates higher

 Meditate!! 

The February ISM Manufacturing Index came in at 47.70 (prev 47.4). The reading reflected contraction in manufacturing activity for the 4th straight month. However, what stood out in the report was the sharp increase in the Prices Index which jumped to 51.3 from 44.5 and the new orders index rose to 47.0 (prev 42.50). The activity contracted at a slower pace amid a backdrop of rising prices which adds to fears around Fed tightening.

Comments from FOMC voting member  Neel Kashkari also pushed rates higher. “We’re not yet seeing much of a sign of our interest-rate increases slowing down the services sector of the economy and that is concerning to me,” he said. “Wage growth is at a level that it actually is too high to be consistent with our” 2% inflation target. He also said that if the Fed declares "victory too soon, there will be a flood of exuberance" and it will need to do even more work that if the Fed declares "victory too soon, there will be a flood of exuberance" and it will need to do even more work.

Fed fund futures continue to price in higher rates with terminal rate of 5.4850% in September rather than earlier July peak and year end pricing at 5.37%. Dec 23 pricing has shifted around 100 bps.

On the domestic front, INR rates moved higher in line with global rates:

1Y OIS 7.06% (prev 7.00%)
2Y OIS 6.77% (prev 6.72%)
5Y OIS 6.68% (prev 6.62%)
India 10Y Gsec 7.45%

RBI absorbed 67K cr through LAF operations - 
O/S Repo         86K crore 
MSF + SDF     -153K crore
Cash balance deposited with RBI 822K crore (prev day 857K crore)
WAR 6.26%

USD Index moved lower on improved risk sentiment post the strong Chinese PMI data released yesterday. Today, the Asian sentiment has taken a bit of a beating as US yields move higher. USDINR gapped up at open. The global environment is tentative. We moved out of the 82.60 - 83.00 range yesterday to touch a low of 82.3625. For those of you who had exited ahead of the 82.32 support, 82.60 will now be an important resistance. We are looking for sideways consolidation at 82.60 to sell here. 

Nifty is down 0.50% trading at 17352 and FPI flows have been stable so far.

That's the morning wrap for today.

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