Making Sense

I was away the whole last week of December as I took a road trip with family to Nagpur and Panchmarhi (MP). I was amazed by the Mumbai - Nagpur Expressway ME - 2 / Samruddhi Mahamarg - a 600km stretch of road and it felt like driving on AutoBahn. You easily accelerate to 120 - 130 kmph on straight roads.  From Nagpur, we drove off to Panchmarhi. We took the morning safari and stopped at a huge tract of land laden with grass covered in Dewdrops. We moved our hand over the dew laden leaves and then as we clapped our hands the whole mist fell on our faces. It was wonderfully refreshing and I thought I got an extra glow. It was a fantastic trip and recommend Panchmarhi as a must travel destination. GoI announced the sale of 3 dated securities for a notified amount of Inr 34K crs with an option to retain an additional Inr 2K cr using uniform price method for 7.32% GS 2030, 7.18% GS 2037 and multiple price method for 7.25% GS 2063 securities. 97.38% of the ₹2000 banknotes in ci...

EURUSD is currently trading at 1.0880 steadily climbing for 83 trading days off lows of 0.9534 in Sep 2022 shortly after the peak in natural gas prices and a peak in trade deficit . A steady run of 14.60%.  Look at how Euro Area trade deficit worsened in the aftermath of the Russia - Ukraine war. Do we see an opportunity to sell into the rally yet?  Let's look at two aspects here -  1. What are the interest rates telling you?                Key ECB Rates                Deposit facility     2.00 %                Main refinancing operations 2.50 %                Marginal lending facility   2.75 % Market implied interest rates are pricing in a peak terminal rate of 3.5%. Next 5 policy meeting dates are 02 Feb 23 / 16 Mar 23 / 04 May 23 / 15 Jun 23 and 27 Jul 23 where in t...

 India recorded BoP surplus of $ 4.5 bn for Q1 22-23. Current account deficit came in at $ 23.90 bn and capital account recorded a surplus of $ 28 bn explained by short term credit of $ 8.7 bn and $ 19 bn in bank capital. 1.        Merchandise     -68.50 As    Monthly trade deficit for first 5 months is usd 129 bn and for the balance of the year estimated deficit is usd 25 bn pm , then yearly number is likely at usd 300 - 305 bn. 2.        Invisibles           44.66 ( Services        31.71;  Transfers     22.85;  Income        -9.26)       The year end number is estimated at usd 160 bn wherein services surplus could average usd 30 bn pm ( usd 120 bn surplus); transfers at usd 80 bn and income outflow at usd 40 bn. I      Current Ac...