The MPC is scheduled to announce the interest rate decision on April 5, 2024 Expectations: Interest Decision No change expected, 6.25% - 6.50% - 6.75% (SDF - Repo - MSF) Policy Stance With FY25 Inflation estimates at 4.40% and RBI Policy Rate at 6.50%, RBI is well into restrictive territory with Real Rates on a Forward-Looking basis at over 2%. A whole new discussion around higher Neutral Rates has espoused as growth has consistently outpaced expectations. PMIs have been in expansion territory and credit growth has been robust at an average 15.39% for the calendar 2023. Expectations into FY25 growth are robust with through the year growth seen at 7.40% and FY24 growth seen clocking 8%. Outlook for inflation is benign with through the year inflation numbers likely in the vicinity of the lower band of the 4% - 6% target. According to RBI Monthly B...
The specific focus of the Blog is on Global and Domestic interest rates and currencies market. I look at fundamentals to define my bias and corroborate that with a study of price action to put on high conviction trades. The views and opinions are those of author and author alone. ~ Author: Vaishali Bagchi