Making Sense

"The goal of a successful trader is to make the best trades. Money is secondary." Quick wrap on the market moves at the start of Asian Session: USDINR is in a strong momentum lower and part of the position was squared off  . Follow the momentum !! 81.75 is an important support but the move could very well stretch to 81.50 or 81.02. We need to look for price action to confirm a reversal trade. Patience !! Patience !! Domestic equity markets are trading in the green with Nifty at 17788, up 1.1% after failing to break the 200 DMA at 17414. FPI flows have been stable with Friday number seen at $ 30 mn inflow. The Services PMI released on friday showed services activity at a 12 year high and robust GST collection of Inr 1.50 trn in the month of February. India Money market operations (figures in bracket show prev day closing numbers) LAF absorption                     -61,000 crores (-82,000 crs) O/S Repo      ...

Follow your Playbook of trades !! USDINR trade has worked beautifully. Yesterday, we did get a sideways consolidation to initiate shorts for better part of the day. The next important support is 81.75 where profits can be booked on 75% of the position.  GQG Partners on Thursday announced the completion of USD 1.87 bn secondary equity transactions in the Adani portfolio companies.  Brokerage firm Citi estimates that the increase in free float in Adani Group companies will lead to inflows b/w usd 200 – 230 mn and the possibility of a change in weightage in MSCI's May review. Services PMI at a 12 year high The S&P Global India Services PMI expanded to a 12-year high of 59.4 in in the month of February ( prior 57.2 ) showing the best improvement in new business intakes in 12 years. Input cost inflation eased to a 23-month low, while output cost inflation slowed to a 12-month low.  In the recently concluded Assembly elections in North East – Nagaland, Meghalaya and Tripura...

"The details are not the details. They make the design" RBI MPC Meeting minutes: Dr. Ashima Goyal and Prof. Jayanth R. Varma voted for no change in policy rates and favored a change of monetary policy stance to neutral while the other 4 members voted to increase the policy rate by 25 bps and maintained stance to withdrawal of accommodation. Dr. Bhide / Dr. Ranjan / Dr. Patra and the Governor expressed concerns on the sticky core inflation and maintained durable disinflation in prices is a necessary condition to necessitate a pause in hikes.  Fed Meeting minutes: The Federal Reserves also released the minutes of the monetary policy meet on Feb 1, 2023. The committee acknowledged that while significant progress had been made towards a sufficiently restrictive policy stance and inflation pressures have moderated, inflation continues to be elevated and labor markets continue to be tight contributing to wage price pressures. The consensus was for a 25 bps rate hike as a slower p...