Making Sense

India's overall Trade Deficit was a positive surprise with data summarized below: Sharply higher services exports at $ 32.80 bn (18% higher mom) and lower merchandize imports (down 7% lower mom) saw trade deficit narrow to $ 740 mn.  If we can maintain the higher services exports and lower merchandize imports, we could end the year with an even lower current account deficit.  For the week ended 09 Feb 2024, FX reserves declined by $ 5.20 bn to $ 617 bn. 

 You can find the link to the previous numbers here  Trade deficit for the month of April 2023 came in at $ 15.24 bn  much lower at than consensus expectations of $ 19.50 bn. Services sector performance continues to be robust with services surplus at $ 13.38 bn.  April Merchandise exports $ 34.66 bn ( -10% mom) & Services Exports $ 30.36 bn ( +9% mom) Exports were driven by sharp rise in oil meals , electronic goods and rice while gems and jewellery, jute, textiles etc showed sharp contraction.  April Merchandise Imports $ 49.99 bn (-14% mom) & Services Imports $ 16.50 bn ( +17% mom) Import contraction was driven by sharp fall in fertilisers, gold and vegetable oil while pulses, machinery, electrical goods rose. Overall Trade deficit came in sharply lower at $ 1.38 bn. If the services sector continues to show robust performance like has been the trend over the last year with per month trade deficit averaging $ 2 bn and Income plus transfers averagin...