Making Sense

 Risk means more things can happen than will happen.                                               ~ Elroy Dimson After the sharp gains yesterday, markets consolidated overnight. I am a better seller of USD on rallies in a data light week. US2s +10 bps, 4.94% US10s + 8 bps, 4.65% US2s10s -30 bps (-3 bps) DXY 105.26 +0.20%  FOMC Voter Lisa Cook said the Fed is determined to reach 2% inflation target; hopes that current policy settings are restrictive enough to return inflation to target. While Kashkari commented "we need to let the data keep coming to us to see if we really have got the inflation genie back in the bottle". The SLOOS survey showed a net tightening of  standards on loans for businesses and commercial real estate coupled with falling demand. Standards on loans to households, including credit card and auto loans, also tigh...

Let's quickly run through some of the things I picked up over the last week Release of H2 Balance of Payment data 1. India reported a BoP deficit of $ 30.38 bn for Q2 ( $ 4.6 bn surplus for Q1). H1 BoP is at $ 25.78 bn.  Current account = Merchandise + Invisibles ( Services + Transfers + Income)                                 = - 147              + 92             ( 65          + 48            - 21         )                                 = - 55 bn $  Capital Account = Foreign Investment + Loans + Banking Capital + Rupee Debt Service + Other Capital                        ...