Making Sense

"We may never know where we are going, but we'd better have a good idea of where we are" Friday saw the release of the much awaited NFP data print and along side the ISM Non Mfg PMI which is a survey based measure. An analysis of the NFP data should not only focus on the headline number but also various other details like revisions, participation rate, employment rate etc. On the surface reading, the numbers showed strength as can be seen in the table below:   NFP▲ UR (in %) AHE mom AHE yoy Nov-23 173,000 3.7 0.35% 3.96% Exp 1,70,000 3.8 0.29% 3.90% Dec-23 2,16,000 3.7 0.40% 4.10% The prior two months were revised lower by 71K with the Oct - Dec  average at 164,667 compared to Jul - Sep 3 month average of 221,000 which clearly points to a decelerating trend in Employment gains. The unemployment rate was steady at 3.70% due to a drop in Labor participation rate. Under the hood, the Civilian Labor Force declined by 676,000 and the number of employed people fell by 683,000. ...