India's Q3 Real GDP grew at 8.40% (exp 6.60%) and Nominal GDP grew 10.10%. What stood out in the report was the wide divergence of 190 bps between the Q3 Real GVA Growth at 6.50% and Q3 Real GDP Growth at 8.40% on account of higher net taxes on products. Real GVA + Net taxes on products (Taxes - Subsidies) = Real GDP. Net Indirect taxes for Q3 grew 32% yoy. Over the last 3 quarters growth has averaged, 3.75% in PFCE , 3.51% in GFCE and 10.24% in GFCF. Growth in PFCE moderated significantly over the 7.83% growth averaged over full year in 2022-23. Q3 GFCE declined 3.2% yoy and -11% over the quarter. This is also seen in higher Government Cash Balance. For FY2023-24, Real GDP growth is est at 7.60% following a lower revised 7% (from 7.20%) expansion in the prior year. The First Advance Estimates (FAE) had pegged India GDP growth at 7.30% and nominal GDP est of 296.58 trn. The second advance estimates (SAE) peg GDP for FY2023-24 at INR 294 trn. De...
The specific focus of the Blog is on Global and Domestic interest rates and currencies market. I look at fundamentals to define my bias and corroborate that with a study of price action to put on high conviction trades. The views and opinions are those of author and author alone. ~ Author: Vaishali Bagchi