USD continued on the hot streak today following the ISM mfg yesterday and now the JOLTS data. The number of job openings increased to 9.6 mn (exp 8.80 mn) on the last business day of August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The US2s10s bull steepened further into the data and S&P nursed losses of 1.40% as markets reprice recession risks to soft landing. Like I have mentioned in this blog earlier, there is divergence in the market implied Fed Fund Rate pricing ( Dec 24 4.70%) and the Fed projected path ( 5.10%). Should data surprise on the upside and market pricing converges towards the Fed's guided path, USD Index could further strengthen. The immediate resistance comes in at 107.20 followed by 108.00. Labor market has shown remarkable strength. The low levels on Initial Claims data and now the JOLTS job data will be followed by the NFP numbers where consensus expectation is for a reading of 170K (prior 187K).
The specific focus of the Blog is on Global and Domestic interest rates and currencies market. I look at fundamentals to define my bias and corroborate that with a study of price action to put on high conviction trades. The views and opinions are those of author and author alone. ~ Author: Vaishali Bagchi