Making Sense

One of my favorite poem is by Kahlil Gibran and thought I'd share a couple of lines with you all...  Do not live half a life  and do not die a half death If you accept, then express it bluntly,  Do not mask it If you refuse then be clear about it for an ambiguous refusal is but a weak acceptance Do not accept half a solution,  Do not believe half truths,  Do not dream half a dream,  Do not fantasize about half hopes To reach and not arrive, Work and not work The half is a mere moment of inability, but you are able for you are not half a being You are a whole that exists to live a life not half a life” On that note, quick weekly roundup for the US markets below: The Fed Fund Futures are pricing in 88% probability of a rate cut by September Policy.  The Atlanta FED GDPNow Estimates for Q3 growth readings are running at 2.8%. The Cleveland Fed estimates for Core CPI and Core PCE are running at 0.27% and 0.22% respectively mom.  In the last blog piece...

"I fear not the man that has practiced 10,000 Kicks once, but I fear the man that has practiced one kick 10,000 times." ~ Bruce Lee Morning Everyone ,  This   Week gave us a sense of how the prices or inflation has evolved and we had benign readings across CPI and PPI and the updated PCE estimates are now for a reading of 0.01% mom on the headline PCE and -0.01% on Core PCE Prices which translates to an annual reading of 2.4% yoy and 2.4% on Core PCE Prices.  The Implied pricing off Fed Fund Futures is now pricing in o ne full 25 bps of rate cut into the September Policy and 61 bps of cumulative rate cuts for 2024. If you go further out the curve, 100 bps is priced in until March 2025 and 138 odd bps until June 2025.  In the 23rd June Wrap, I had written  On the DXY, 106.25 is a crucial resistance  zone for DXY bears and an important point of reversal. So keep a watch on the levels with SL above 106.75.  DXY declined  over the last 2 weeks fro...

"If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you, B ut make allowance for their doubting too;    If you can wait and not be tired by waiting..... If you can fill the unforgiving minute,  With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run,    Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it...." ~ Rudyard Kipling  Let's Quickly review the U.S Economic Data released over the week.  The GDPNow Model estimate for real GDP growth in Q2 was revised downwards to 3% after the release of the data this week. CBO estimates show that U.S Budget Deficit will be around $ 400 bn larger this year at $ 1.90 trn.  USTs consolidated last week's gains in a 9.50 bps range and US2s10s closed relatively unchanged for the week at - 48 bps and DXY continued to climb higher after taking support at the 103.00 level at the start of the month and S&P 500 made fresh highs at 5517. On the DXY, 106.25 is a crucial resistance zone for DXY bears and an important point of reversal. S...