Massive Bond Sell off on sharply higher NFP Print / Under the hood details point to a softer picture / Levels to watch on US2s
On the NFP Print, the headline print show total Non-Farm Employment rise by 353,000 for the month of January 2024. The January print follows upward revisions to both November and December numbers to the tune of +9000 and +117000. The payroll employment increased by an average of 255K for 2023. The U/R was steady at 3.70% over the last 3 months. The AHE rose 0.55% mom and 4.48% yoy , reversing the deceleration seen since Aug 2023. Under the hood, the change in Labor Force is to the tune of -175000 driven by a change of -144000 in Unemployment level and -31000 in Employment Level. The Labor Force has shrunk by 621000 over the previous 4 months. The average weekly hours have also reduced to 34.10 weekly hours. The average number of hours worked, hit its lowest level since 2010, barring the dip during Covid. The below graph is a good way to visualize the NFP data. This month’s data also had a lot of noise on account of benchmark revisions. It involves comparing the monthly employment...