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Showing posts with the label ISM Mfg

US: Navigating uncertainty and Data Dependent times - Macro Musings

"You don't have to be great to get started, but you have to get started to be great" -  Les Brown The Employment data and the soft ISM print lead to strong bond buying interest with yields on US2s down 14.80 bps and on US10s down 11.80 bps bps over the week. US2s10s steepened 3 bps to close the week at -32.60 bps from -35.60 bps at end of last week. The Atlanta FED GDPNow estimates were revised lower to 1.50%.  We  did not get any post news drift after the initial  sell off in bonds post the Presidential debate barring a move on Monday to 4.795% which was largely faded. Yields on US2s held the 4.76% resistance through the week before dropping sharply. The next support comes in at 4.50% - break below which opens the room for a move likely towards 3.50%. The markets are now pricing in 51 bps of rate cuts into 2024 with 72% probability of the first 25bps rate cut by September 2024.  Fed Chair Powell in his speech mentioned that Inflation is now showing signs of re...

USD Strength continues.....

USD continued on the hot streak today following the ISM mfg yesterday and now the JOLTS data. The number of job openings increased to 9.6 mn (exp 8.80 mn) on the last business day of August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The US2s10s bull steepened further into the data and S&P nursed losses of 1.40% as markets reprice recession risks to soft landing.  Like I have mentioned in this blog earlier, there is divergence in the market implied Fed Fund Rate pricing ( Dec 24 4.70%) and the Fed projected path ( 5.10%). Should data surprise on the upside and market pricing converges towards the Fed's guided path, USD Index could further strengthen. The immediate resistance comes in at 107.20 followed by 108.00. Labor market has shown remarkable strength. The low levels on Initial Claims data and now the JOLTS job data will be followed by the NFP numbers where consensus expectation is for a reading of 170K (prior 187K).