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Geopolitical Concerns Dominate | DXY Higher| US2s10s Bear Steepen| Asian Currencies weaken sharply

USD index made overnight highs of 106.245 and continues to make gains to trade Asia Session highs of 106.39. Catalyst for the move higher is the resilience of the US Economy and Geopolitical temperature notching a few degrees higher as the head of Israel's army said Iran's attack on Israel would be "met with a response". Crude Oil prices dipped to $ 88.76 yesterday but have since recovered back to $ 90.63 levels. 

China's GDP grew 5.30% in Q1 beating consensus expectations however the Industrial Output numbers (4.50% yoy, exp 5.40%) and Retail Sales numbers (3.10% yoy, exp 4.50%) disappointed markets. 

Yield in JGB10s continued to creep higher to 0.87% highs overnight and USDJPY rose to 154.26 levels and continues to make gains to Asian Session highs of 154.42. 

EURUSD continued to suffer on rising yield differentials. 

Retail Sales for March rose 0.70% mom following an upwardly revised 0.94% mom growth in the month of Feb. Real Retail & Trade Services Sales rose 0.50% mom following a 0.50% rise in the previous month. The Retail Sales Control Group rose 1.10% mom, much above consensus expectations of 0.40%. 


The Atlanta FED GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth for Q1 following the Retail Sales report were revised higher to 2.80% from 2.4% on April 10. 

The strength of the data saw US2s10s bear steepening by 5.60 bps. The Implied Fed Fund Pricing was unchanged at 43 bps with first full cut priced into for Sep 24 policy. Today, the data calendar includes the release of the Housing data - Building permits / Housing Starts and Industrial Production data.

I am closely watching markets around the 106.45 - 106.75 zone on the USD index for imminent signs of pull back in the current upmove


 

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