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Market Wrap 03 Oct 2023

The big event overnight was the release of the US JOLTS Job opening data which rose to 9.6 mn in August, higher than consensus estimates of 8.8 mn and intervention in the JPY which saw USDJPY drop to 147.37 from highs of 150.16. 

The UST curve bear steepened with US2s10s trading a high of -33 bps from overnight lows of -44 bps. US10s today morning are trading at a high of 4.85%. 

The implied FFR market pricing for a rate hike into year end continues to be stable around the 13 bps while Dec 24 pricing shifted to 4.73%. 

US ISM Non-mfg PMI data / Jobless Claims and NFP numbers become more crucial.

Today morning, we are again seeing USD catch a bid and for the Asian session , Central Bank intervention remains a key risk. USDINR is expected to open at 83.22 and though we have seen the currency caught in a tight range, one would expect a higher USDINR and higher rates in the current global backdrop

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