Reserve Bank of India (RBI) - Release of the monthly bulletin

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) - Release of the monthly bulletin - Part 1 Fx operations

"Trading requires skill at reading the markets and at managing your own anxieties" - Ed Seykota

The first thing I want to see in the monthly bulletin is the data on RBI Sale / Purchase of USDs and the change in forward position and the swap profile. The Oct Bulletin shows RBI has unwound the S/B Swap book. From a peak swap position of $ 73.21 bn as on March 21, the book now is a miniscule 241 mn. Upto 3 months, RBI is short USD forward and long USD forward beyond 3 months. RBI spot intervention stood at -922 mn.

In summary, since the start of FY, RBI spot intervention has been to the tune of $ 34.33 bn and forward intervention has been to the tune of $ 65.5 bn. Oct was the month when USDINR printed an all time high of 83.2850 and RBI exhausted the long forward position. The month of Oct saw fx reserves reach a 27 month low of $ 524 bn.

Chair Powell - Unequivocally Dovish at Jackson Hole ! Front and Centre Focus on Employment Numbers | USD Index at lower end of the 100.50 - 106.50 Range

I have two basic rules about winning in trading as well as in life: 1. If you don't bet, you can't win. 2. If you lose all your chips, you can't bet. ~ Larry Hite Over the last 3 weeks, after the Aug 5 lows, yields on US2s have consolidated in the 3.90% - 4.10% price range and US10s have progressively made lower lows to close the week at 3.92% and 3.80% respectively. US2s10s bull steepened to close the week at -11.90 bps. USD index closed the week at 100.68, 5% off highs of 106.13 June highs and within close proximity to the established range of 100.50 - 106.50 since last year. There is a 76% probability of a 25 bps rate cut in the Sep Policy. The market is broadly equally divided between a 25 bps and a 50 bps in the November Policy and holds a 87% probability of FFR in the 4.25% - 4.50% range by end of 2024. By next year September Policy, the market assigns a 90% probability of FFR at 3.25% - 3.50%, i.e. 200 bps of cuts in next 1 year. The Atlanta Fed GDP Now ...

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Reserve Bank of India (RBI) - Release of the monthly bulletin - Part 1 Fx operations

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