India CPI and Trade Deficit _ Expected Readings

India CPI is likely to come in at 4.90% with Reuters Poll showing consensus estimates at 5.02%. My Estimates for Trade Deficit are at $ 16 bn much below street estimates of a reading of $18.30 bn. 

It's not the absolute number which is important but you have to understand where will the delta come from. It is important to understand that if Merchandize trade + services number comes in line with previous numbers, averaging $ 6.60 bn combined deficit we will end the year with a current account deficit of $ 29 bn. However, if the trade data (gds& services) exhibits last month's trend of $ 1.3 bn deficit for the next 2 months, then the Current account deficit will be well under $ 20 bn.