The median forecast for CPI
Headline U.S CPI 3.10% yoy and 0.43% mom
Core CPI 3.70% yoy and 0.32% mom
The details of the CPI release are tabled below. Core CPI mom at 0.40% is actually unwounded at 0.358%.
Fed Fund pricing shifted from 91 bps to 86 bps at the time of writing and US2Y is 4.616% (10 bps off lows) and US10Y is trading at 4.157% (7.60 bps off lows). USD index trades at 103.17. Post NFP, DXY had traded a low of 102.36.
Core Services inflation rose 0.46% mom following a 0.66% mom rise the prior month. Last 12 months core services inflation has been up at an average pace of 0.43% mom and Core goods inflation rose 0.11% mom.
The data does not change expectations much but ofcourse supports the case of a cautious Fed.
We now wait for the PPI data on thursday for estimates of PCE and more importantly the Fed projections for PCE numbers and FFR.
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