US Retail Sales surprised to the upside. Sep 2023 Retail sales came in at 0.70% mom and July 2023 to August 2023 % change was revised from up 0.6% to up 0.8%. Excluding autos, sales were up 0.6% mom, above f/c for just 0.2%. Total Industrial production rose 0.30% mom (f/c 0.00%).
Bond market sold off on the release of Retail Sales number. US2Y yields rose to a high of 5.24% , levels last seen in July 2006 and US10Y yields rose to 4.86%. We saw a reversal of the Safe haven buying in bonds (post the Israel-Hamas conflict) and DXY. DXY weakened to 106.02 levels. US equities closed flat.
Today morning, bunch of economic releases from China surprised to the upside. Retail Sales rose 5.5% yoy, Q3 GDP expanded by 4.90% yoy (f/c 4.40%) and Industrial production rose 4.5% yoy (f/c 4.30%).
Crude Oil price and Gold are on a rise. Resilience of the US economic data coupled with today's strong Economic data from China could lift commodity prices higher and support commodity currencies.
Early morning wrap will be very concise today since I'm in mad rush. I will endeavor to share the detailed thoughts later.
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