"Thorough preparation makes its own Luck" - As a trader, I couldn't believe in this more. We are all involved in a game where the outcome is probabilistic and that is the universal truth. But attributing the unknown to chance rather than lack of preparation is a fundamental error and sets us up for failure. Guard against failure through thorough preparation.
Know as much as you can to improve the edge and be thorough as hell. After all the satisfaction of doing it right supersedes the chance success.
Interesting moves overnight with a sharp rally in US Treasury yields on the back of a weak 30Y auction, initial jobless claims data at 196000 still suggesting a strong labor market data and sell off in equities.
US 2Y @ 4.50% ( T-1 low 4.41%) - On the 2Y we see a double bottom with a price objective of 4.48% which has been met. The next areas of support for the bond are at 4.57%, 4.61% and 4.73%.
US 10Y @ 3.68% (T-1 low 3.575%) - US 10Y took support at swing low of 3.32% to complete a double bottom with a target of 3.82%. There is also completion of BAT pattern at 3.84% which could be a reversal point.
US 2x10 stands at 82 bps
The sharp move higher in yields saw a sell off in equities and Fed funds pricing shifting higher by a couple of basis points to 5.15% and Dec 23 pricing to 4.68%.
I think at this juncture there is more juice in hardening of yields and next week's inflation data is crucial.
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