India CPI for the month of November came in below market estimates of a reading of 5.70%.
November CPI came in at 5.55% yoy and 0.54% mom.
Cereals (~ 10% wt rose 10% yoy) , Fruits (~ 3% wt rose 11% yoy) , Vegetables (~ 6% wt rose 18% yoy) , Pulses (~2.4% wt rose 20% yoy) and Spices (~2.5% rose 22% yoy) were the known culprits. Oil and fats prices (~3.6% wt) were significantly down, -15% yoy.
Core CPI came in lower at 4.11% yoy.
What does this means for Rates going forward?
Usually the month of December sees disinflation, averaging - 45 bps mom which translates to a reading of 5.56% yoy. If Dec CPI were to come along 5.50% number, the Q3 FY24 CPI will average 5.3% , 30 bps lower than the RBIs guidance. The Q4 CPI could average 4.80%, much below RBIs 5.20%.
As mentioned in my earlier post and with the current CPI data coming softer than expected, I believe we could see 75 - 100 bps of cuts in FY 2025.
IIP rose 11.75% yoy in the month of Oct 2024 with Manufacturing (wt ~ 78%) growing 10.35%. The data is a lagging indicator but confirms the strong growth momentum in the month of Oct.
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