AUDUSD Update

AUDUSD has been consolidating in a wide range of 0.6625 - 0.6800. Break below 0.6625 on 26 April to lows of 0.6574 saw strong buying interest come in. Full time 27100 jobs lost;U/R 3.70%,part time jobs added 22800, estimates were for a net addition of 25000; wage price index rose 0.80% qoq (Previous 0.90%qoq); 3.7% Est 3.6% Prior 3.40%. Markets are pricing in peak terminal rate of 4.10%, 25 bps hike from current level of 3.85%. AUDUSD faces crosswinds from CNH depreciation while sharp up move in Copper prices, Iron ore and natural gas prices make the outlook a bit cloudy. I would prefer to stay away from the pair till either a more conclusive technical picture present itself or there is a fundamental catalyst.

Important Resistance - 0.6708 / 0.6748 / 0.6793

Important Support - 0.6625 / 0.6575 / 0.6525

Chair Powell - Unequivocally Dovish at Jackson Hole ! Front and Centre Focus on Employment Numbers | USD Index at lower end of the 100.50 - 106.50 Range

I have two basic rules about winning in trading as well as in life: 1. If you don't bet, you can't win. 2. If you lose all your chips, you can't bet. ~ Larry Hite Over the last 3 weeks, after the Aug 5 lows, yields on US2s have consolidated in the 3.90% - 4.10% price range and US10s have progressively made lower lows to close the week at 3.92% and 3.80% respectively. US2s10s bull steepened to close the week at -11.90 bps. USD index closed the week at 100.68, 5% off highs of 106.13 June highs and within close proximity to the established range of 100.50 - 106.50 since last year. There is a 76% probability of a 25 bps rate cut in the Sep Policy. The market is broadly equally divided between a 25 bps and a 50 bps in the November Policy and holds a 87% probability of FFR in the 4.25% - 4.50% range by end of 2024. By next year September Policy, the market assigns a 90% probability of FFR at 3.25% - 3.50%, i.e. 200 bps of cuts in next 1 year. The Atlanta Fed GDP Now ...

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AUDUSD Update

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DXY holds 100.50 support| US2s10s Steepening persists| Economic Data at Cross Roads | Is more than 200 bps of Rate Cut space available?

Embedded Narrative - Soft Landing | Benign Inflation | US2s H&S in play | US2s10s bull steepening

Shroedinger's Cat ~ Preparation is the Key to play markets || US Politics || Macro Musings

Recalibration of Policy Stance | Ride in Risk Assets | Soft Landing | Close out US2s10s Bear Steepeners

Chair Powell - Unequivocally Dovish at Jackson Hole ! Front and Centre Focus on Employment Numbers | USD Index at lower end of the 100.50 - 106.50 Range