Heartening Trade Numbers

 You can find the link to the previous numbers here 

Trade deficit for the month of April 2023 came in at $ 15.24 bn  much lower at than consensus expectations of $ 19.50 bn. Services sector performance continues to be robust with services surplus at $ 13.38 bn. 

April Merchandise exports $ 34.66 bn ( -10% mom) & Services Exports $ 30.36 bn ( +9% mom)

Exports were driven by sharp rise in oil meals , electronic goods and rice while gems and jewellery, jute, textiles etc showed sharp contraction. 

April Merchandise Imports $ 49.99 bn (-14% mom) & Services Imports $ 16.50 bn ( +17% mom)

Import contraction was driven by sharp fall in fertilisers, gold and vegetable oil while pulses, machinery, electrical goods rose.

Overall Trade deficit came in sharply lower at $ 1.38 bn.

If the services sector continues to show robust performance like has been the trend over the last year with per month trade deficit averaging $ 2 bn and Income plus transfers averaging $ 14 bn  per quarter / $ 4.7 bn per month, we would likely end the year with a current account surplus which bodes well for INR outperformance.

With FPI numbers in FY 24 at $ 4 bn, there has been a complete reversal in the poor trade performance.