Crude Oil Prices fall to $ 81.27 support/ Markets consolidate gains from last week

"No matter how good fundamentals may be, humans exercising their greed and propensity to err have the ability to screw things up"  

We clearly saw some consolidation in the markets yesterday. 

US2s - 2 bps, 4.92% , High 4.957% - Low 4.89%

US10s - 8 bps, 4.57%, High 4.66% - Low 4.57%

US2s10s -35 bps (-5 bps)

DXY 105.50 +0.23% 

Fed Fund pricing

Peak Terminal Pricing 5.37%

Jun 24 Pricing 5.045% ~ market is pricing in one full 25 bps rate cut by mid next year

Dec 24 Pricing 4.457%

Brent Crude Oil prices dropped below $81.60 support to trade a low of $ 81.27 as US crude oil inventories saw a major build up and less than encouraging trade data from China failed to support demand outlook . Crude oil stocks rose by a 11.9 mn barrels w/e Nov 3 following a 1.347 mn barrel rise in the prior week (API). API data shows net build up in crude oil inventories of 10.568 mn barrels so far this year. 

Of Note,

German Industrial Production contracted 1.40% mom , est -0.10%

Data from the UK pointed to strength with Like for Like Retail Sales up 2.60% , est 2.4% and Halifax house prices rose 1.10% mom

The narrative from Fed Speakers was on similar lines:

a. Labor market getting into better balance

b. Elevated yields on US10s have tightened financial conditions

c. Committed to 2% inflation target, would hike if progress stalls.

Al eyes will be on Federal Reserve Chair Powell speech today and the US 10Y auction.