Making Sense

"What we hope ever to do with ease, we must learn first to do with diligence" Asian markets are trading higher as China resumes after week long Lunar Holidays. China re-opening alongside lower quantum of rate hikes from the US Fed has lifted the sentiment around EM currencies.  USDCNH (6.75) is now back in the consolidation range of 6.65 - 6.78 in which the currency was trapped from May until mid August 2022.  USDKRW (1228) is trading below the May 2022 lows and now finds support at 1206-1207 levels. USDTHB (32.73) is also fast approaching the Feb 2022 lows at 32.07. While KRW and THB have appreciated over 15% against the USD followed by CNH, IDR has been a relative underperformer, appreciating only 5.50% from peak to trough.  USDJPY has been facing resistance at 130.60 - 131.00 levels since 23rd Jan 2023 with market consensus leaning towards further widening of the YCC band. Today, a report by a panel of academics and business executives urged the BOJ to make its 2% infl...

 A slew of U.S. economic data were released today.  Pending Home Sales rose 2.50% mom against prior revised contraction of 2.60% (prior -4%). Pending home sales sank 33.8% yoy. However, the current surprise uptick in pending homes sales suggests a bottom could be in the offing. The University of Michigan Sentiment rose to 64.90 from prior 64.60 Personal Consumption Expenditure fell 0.20% from prior revised number of 0.10% contraction Core PCE Price Index rose 0.30% mom (4.40% yoy) vs prior 0.20% (4.70%) Market pricing of interest rates continues to be stable. 2Y US Treasuries trade at 4.21% while 10Y trades at 3.52% but the 2Y and 5Y USD SOFR swaps are trading right at 4.22% and 3.41% respectively. The DXY Index is down 11.50% since Sep end and has taken support at 101.50 for the last 8 trading sessions. The index looks ripe for a corrective bounce but in absence of a catalyst, we like to stay on the sidelines or invest about 20% of the capital just to dip our hands.

 The big news today morning was the release of the Tokyo CPI Inflation. The core CPI for the area of Tokyo in Japan jumped 4.3% in January 2023, accelerating at the fastest pace since 1981 and exceeding forecasts for a 4.2% rise amid broadening inflationary pressure. Tokyo’s core inflation rate, a leading indicator for nationwide price trends, also followed a revised 3.9% gain in December and surpassed the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for the eighth straight month, signaling that upward price trends in the country have not reached its peak yet. **trading economics The BoJ announced the  Funds-Supplying Operations to Support Financing for Climate Change Responses for a notional of $ 21.73 bn as yields inched closer to the upper bound of the YCC band at 0.50%. The CPI data sparked a sell off in yields in the Asian session with US 2YT at 4.19% and US 10YT at 3.53% and the 2x10 inversion at 66 bps. Domestic yields also opened higher with 10Y treasury trading at 7.39% from Wednesday's...

""Objective analysis should be made of the reaction to the event rather than the formation of the Opinion" US Q4 GDP grew 2.90% vs consensus expectations of a 2.60% growth and Q3 growth at 3.20%. The US Markets rallied on the economic news with S&P 500 closing the session at 4060.  GDP = C + I + G + NX Though the headline print is strong, the internals paint a mixed picture.  Consumer spending +2.1% vs +2.3% prior Net trade added 0.56% to GDP vs adding 2.86% in Q3 Inventories added 1.46% vs a cut of 1.19% in Q3 Govt added 0.64% vs +0.65% in Q3 Within residential fixed investment, the leading contributors to the decrease were new single-family construction as well as brokers' commissions.  Hopes of a soft landing increased as the headline number is strong but the activity is slowing and the growth in inventories in the context of the current global macro environment is not construed as a positive. Instead of a hard landing, the market narrative has been increasing...

 In my earlier  post , I had promised to cover more on forwards. In the earlier post on Jan 23, 2023, I had written  "A quick look at the pattern of outstanding RBI forward book shows that in the last 2 years, RBI is seen paying forwards in the last quarter of the FY. In 2021, RBI's forward book swelled from o/s longs of $ 47.38 bn in Jan 2021 to $ 72.75 bn in March 2021. In 2022, a similar pattern was observed where the book swelled from $ 50bn in Jan to $ 66 bn in March 2022." That prompted the question around the cause of such paying activity. A market veteran guided me to look at RBIs behavior from a balance sheet and capital management perspective and it now makes sense. So what happens when RBI intervenes in spot market: When RBI buys foreign exchange, the Net Foreign Assets rise on the RBI's Balance Sheet.  In lieu of FX purchases, RBI releases INR liquidity in the banking system which the banks deposit as reserves. So the size of the RBIs Balance sheet increa...

EURUSD is currently trading at 1.0880 steadily climbing for 83 trading days off lows of 0.9534 in Sep 2022 shortly after the peak in natural gas prices and a peak in trade deficit . A steady run of 14.60%.  Look at how Euro Area trade deficit worsened in the aftermath of the Russia - Ukraine war. Do we see an opportunity to sell into the rally yet?  Let's look at two aspects here -  1. What are the interest rates telling you?                Key ECB Rates                Deposit facility     2.00 %                Main refinancing operations 2.50 %                Marginal lending facility   2.75 % Market implied interest rates are pricing in a peak terminal rate of 3.5%. Next 5 policy meeting dates are 02 Feb 23 / 16 Mar 23 / 04 May 23 / 15 Jun 23 and 27 Jul 23 where in t...

The Union Budget is drawing to a close and I thought of putting down my estimates for the Government Borrowing program.  GoI will present the Union Budget on Feb 1 , 2023.  In accordance with the amendment to the FRBM act, GoI targets to reach the fiscal deficit level below 4.5% of GDP by 2025-26. The Finance Minister said, “We plan to continue with our path of fiscal consolidation, and intend to reach a fiscal deficit level below 4.5% of GDP by 2025-2026 with a fairly steady decline over the period. We hope to achieve the consolidation by first, increasing the buoyancy of tax revenue through improved compliance, and secondly, by increased receipts from monetisation of assets, including Public Sector Enterprises and land.” This entails an annual reduction of 60 - 65 bps in the fiscal deficit number.  Accordingly, FY 24 fiscal deficit is pegged at 5.80% and gross borrowing at 16 trn. For FY 24, budget comes ahead of a heavy state election schedule and 2024 Lok Sabha electi...

I wrote in my earlier  blogpost - US Market Wrap  why I do not like to chase the current momentum lower in yields.  US2YT has been facing resistance at 4.18% since late November 2022 and though US yield fell below 4.18% to trade a low of 4.12%, the yields have since bounced back towards 4.18%. Likewise, the US10Y has been facing resistance at 3.44% since Dec 2022. The 10Y yields fell to lows of 3.32% last week to bounce back higher and currently trades at 3.47%.  Data releases last week pointed to deteriorating economic fundamentals on the Retail Sales (-1.1% mom), Industrial production (-0.70% mom), housing starts (-1.4% mom) and building permits (-1.60% mom). However, the labor market continued to be resilient with initial jobless claims at levels lowest since late Sep at 190K. This made me question if the current market pricing has run ahead of itself and the same is covered  here .

 RBI released the November monthly bulletin.  Operations in the OTC segment show RBI net bought $ 4.36 bn of foreign currency and accumulated the long forward book to the extent of $ 8.25 bn with total outstanding forwards at $ 8.49 bn. RBI had unwound the forward book from a peak of $ 65.79 bn in March 2022 to $ 241 mn in Oct 2022 on FPI outflows and rising trade deficit.   You could refer to the  Oct 2022  data here. A quick look at the pattern of outstanding RBI forward book shows that in the last 2 years, RBI is seen paying forwards in the last quarter of the FY. In 2021, RBI's forward book swelled from o/s longs of $ 47.38 bn in Jan 2021 to $ 72.75 bn in March 2021. In 2022, a similar pattern was observed where the book swelled from $ 50bn in Jan to $ 66 bn in March 2022.  The above data leans towards a pay on dips strategy. Interest Rate differentials are the primary drivers of FX Swaps with other factors like system liquidity, intervention, econ...

Bank of Japan made no changes to the Yield curve control policy. It kept the band at +/-  0.50% and amended the rules for a fund supply market operation. Under the amended rules, BoJ can offer funds upto 10 years against collateral to financial institutions for both fixed and variable rate loans.  Post the announcement, JGBs yields quickly fell to lows of 0.36%. I anticipated JPY to depreciate after a pull back on the sharp fall in yields but nah nah nah.. JPY completely reversed course.  The price development only goes to show that the market anticipates YCC to likely end in march which is the last policy announcement by Governor Kuroda before the end of his term. The inflation data released today further emboldens the expectation. Japan's core consumer prices in December rose 4.0% from a year earlier, double the central bank's 2% target, hitting a fresh 41-year high. Dates ( according to Reuters) 10th Feb - Present nomineed to Parliament 16-17th Feb - hea...

If you personalize losses, you can't trade. It is important to know the probability of your wins so when you loose , take comfort in knowing that you will make money only x % of the time. Initial Jobless Claims came in for the week ending Jan 14 decreased by 15,000 to 190,000 and Continuing jobless claims for the week ending Jan 7 increased by 17,000 to 1.647 million. The employment data has been resilient.  Dec total housing starts declined 1.4% mom in December to 1.382 million units while total building permits declined 1.6% mom to 1.330 million. High mortgage rates are biting into spends on housing as can be seen in the chart below. Remember, we are seeing goods disinflation and due to the construction of the shelter component of CPI, shelter inflation will also start coming off from Q2, the services excluding shelter component could be sticky.  What is important here to understand is - there is divergence in the embedded market pricing of Fed Funds rate and Fed's proj...

The BoJ amended the rules for a fund supply market operation to use it as a new tool to prevent long term interest rates from rising too much. Under the amended rules, BoJ can offer funds upto 10 years against collateral to financial institutions for both fixed and variable rate loans .  What is Fund supply operations against pooled collateral?  Also known as open market operations, are a monetary policy tool used by central banks to control the money supply in an economy. In these operations, the central bank provides funds to commercial banks in exchange for a collateral, such as government bonds. The central bank can use these operations to increase or decrease the money supply in the economy, depending on its monetary policy goals.  Financial institutions can therefore buy say 10Y JGBs at 0.50% and use it as a collateral to borrow funds from BoJ. This would keep the yield on JGBs. The BoJ simultaneously announced that it will offer 5 years loans under the fund supply...

Good morning !! The hard work in trading comes in the preparation. The actual process of trading, however, should be effortless. BoJ monetary policy meeting kept the yield curve unchanged at +/- 50 bps. It is the only Central Bank that has a NIRP (Negative Interest Rate Policy). The bank will continue with its current monetary policy of maintaining its short-term interest rate at minus 0.1% and its long-term interest rate around 0%. The Bank will offer to purchase 10Y JGBs at 0.50% every business day through fixed rate purchase operations unless it is highly likely no bids will be submitted. You may revisit the earlier decision  here . Earlier local media reports suggested that policymakers will be looking to review the side effects of current ultra-easy monetary policy and potential risks following the December move. This had lead to consternation among the market participants with market opinion widely divided between status quo / widening of the band / abandonment of YCC policy....

WPI inflation peaked appears to have peaked in May - June 2022 from highs of 16.68% to most recently released figure of 4.95%. This is the lowest print since March 2021. The decline was broad based but the primary articles saw a mom decline of 2.98% followed by fuel and power at -1% and the manufactured products basket falling 0.28% mom. On a yoy basis, fuel and power which has a weight of 13.2% in the WPI basket is up 18% yoy.  The recent decline in WPI confirms the goods disinflation narrative while the stickiness of the core persists (earlier  CPI ) While OIS continues to respect the range established earlier: 1Y OIS Range 6.55% - 6.75%, level 6.69% 5Y OIS Range 6.15/20% - 6.50%, level 6.25% 1x5 OIS spread has widened to - 44 bps from early dec lows of 43 bps.

“Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy.” - John Bogle India released the trade deficit data.  December merchandise trade deficit came in at $ 23.76 bn (prev month $ 23.89 bn) with mom exports growing at 8% , current $ 34.48 bn, prev month $ 31.99 bn and mom inports growing 4% , current month $ 58.24 bn , prev month $ 55.88 bn. On the services side , exports rose 4% mom to $ 27.34 bn while imports rose 16% mom to $ 15.56 bn. Dec services exports and imports held steady above the Apr - Dec 2022 mean of $ 26 bn and $ 15 bn.  On the aggregate, trade deficit ( merchandise + services ) stands at $ 118 bn which is a significant deterioration from the deficit of $ 57.26 bn for the corresponding period in 2021. The transfers and income surplus for H1 22 - 23 stood at $ 26 bn, extrapolating the same, transfer and income surplus is estimated at $ 13 bn. Q3 merchandise trade deficit is est at $ 74.5 bn while services surplus is est at $ 36.85 bn. Invisibles (services + income + tr...