One needs to be watchful of the USDINR moves. After closing the week at 61.38 on Oct 4, it has made higher lows on 2 consecutive sessions and closed near 61.80 levels. A close above the Oct 4 high at 61.95 will signal a partial retracement of the down move atleast upto 62.50. Light positioning is preferred here till we get further clarity on the direction.
The specific focus of the Blog is on Global and Domestic interest rates and currencies market. I look at fundamentals to define my bias and corroborate that with a study of price action to put on high conviction trades. The views and opinions are those of author and author alone. ~ Author: Vaishali Bagchi
V, agree with you. Essentially, there is a wedge forming on the daily USDINR. For that to play out, the USD has to break above 62.28 tomorrow. Today, we went to wedge resistance and pulled back below 62. The line drops at the rate of 4 paise each day. I don't see evidence of a turn for the dollar against the INR, but when you look at the crosses and how the DXY is positioned against them, there is mounting evidence that it is trying to find a major bottom. For instance, the GBP has reversed from a very powerful monthly trendline resistance drawn by connecting the 2009-2013 triangle tops, the JPY has reversed from a confluence of trendline intersection and the 200 DMA while the DXY is trying to find legs at a major weekly support line. For sure, interesting times lie heard. The majors are not as bullish against the USD as is the INR. So, its totally a game of patience.
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